H114: finished a war of attrition

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H114: finished a war of attrition PROMISING negative

   because NEGATIVE: finished in the first three of a jumps race where 40%+ failed to finish, and runs again within 21 days. A gruelling race.

   last_position <= 3 AND last_race_dnf_share >= 0.4 AND days_since_last_run <= 21 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.93 on 1,883 bets, by period 0.94 · 0.95 · 0.88. info

   Betfair SP return -17.5%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H114: finished a war of attrition

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-227700.94

   2023 to a year ago8250.95

   Last year2880.88

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   won it: A/E 1.00 on 640 bets, by period 0.91 · 1.07 · 1.03. info

   Betfair SP return -0.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.07. Zone: all. On H114: finished a war of attrition

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222490.91

   2023 to a year ago2791.07

   Last year1121.03

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   favourite or second favourite: A/E 0.97 on 968 bets, by period 1.00 · 0.95 · 0.98. info

   Betfair SP return -7.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.95 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H114: finished a war of attrition

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223951.00

   2023 to a year ago4250.95

   Last year1480.98

5. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H114: finished a war of attrition Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.933 on 1883 bets (broad NEGATIVE)