H114: finished a war of attrition

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: finished in the first three of a jumps race where 40%+ failed to finish, and runs again within 21 days. A gruelling race.

The rule

last_position <= 3 AND last_race_dnf_share >= 0.4 AND days_since_last_run <= 21 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')

Reads: last_position, last_race_dnf_share, days_since_last_run, race_type

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

last_position <= 3 AND last_race_dnf_share >= 0.4 AND days_since_last_run <= 21 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "won it",
    "rule": "(last_position <= 3 AND last_race_dnf_share >= 0.4 AND days_since_last_run <= 21 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')) AND (last_position = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "favourite or second favourite",
    "rule": "(last_position <= 3 AND last_race_dnf_share >= 0.4 AND days_since_last_run <= 21 AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase')) AND (sp_rank <= 2)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info favourite or second favourite · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

968

A/E

0.97

winners vs the prices

SP return

-15.3%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-7.8%

148 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 27.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H114-finished-a-war-of-attrition Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.933 on 1883 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H114-finished-a-war-of-attrition (favourite or second favourite): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H114-finished-a-war-of-attrition (won it): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H114-finished-a-war-of-attrition (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H114-finished-a-war-of-attrition: H114: finished a war of attrition (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.