H118: out of the race early

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H118: out of the race early KILLED red

   because Fell, unseated or was brought down early last time and runs again within 28 days: it had no race, so it is as fresh as before it.

   lt_early_exit = 1 AND days_since_last_run <= 28

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.87 on 281 bets, by period 0.83 · 0.95. info

   Betfair SP return +0.9%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H118: out of the race early

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1760.83

   Later half1050.95

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   no repeat jumping errors: A/E 0.89 on 261 bets, by period 0.80 · 1.03. info

   Betfair SP return +4.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.80 to 1.03. Zone: all. On H118: out of the race early

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1640.80

   Later half971.03

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   chase: A/E 1.05 on 76 bets, by period 1.17. info

   Betfair SP return +185.8%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On H118: out of the race early

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half601.17

   Later half16–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.87 on 130 bets, by period 0.84 · 0.90. info

   Betfair SP return -15.9%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H118: out of the race early

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half780.84

   Later half520.90

6. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H118: out of the race early Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [chase] RED A/E 1.049 on 76 bets (broad RED)

7. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   H118-out-of-the-race-early (H118: out of the race early) was predicted positive but went the other way in the earlier research: A/E 0.87 on 281 bets (periods 0.83 / 0.95).

   surprise0.40waiting for a reasoning passfrom H118-out-of-the-race-early