H118: out of the race early

Mechanism and rationale

Fell, unseated or was brought down early last time and runs again within 28 days: it had no race, so it is as fresh as before it.

The rule

lt_early_exit = 1 AND days_since_last_run <= 28

Reads: lt_early_exit, days_since_last_run

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

lt_early_exit = 1 AND days_since_last_run <= 28

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "no repeat jumping errors",
    "rule": "(lt_early_exit = 1 AND days_since_last_run <= 28) AND (jumping_errors_last3 <= 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "chase",
    "rule": "(lt_early_exit = 1 AND days_since_last_run <= 28) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(lt_early_exit = 1 AND days_since_last_run <= 28) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

130

A/E

0.87

winners vs the prices

SP return

-27.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-15.9%

130 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 13.1%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H118-out-of-the-race-early Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [chase] RED A/E 1.049 on 76 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H118-out-of-the-race-early (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H118-out-of-the-race-early (chase): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H118-out-of-the-race-early (no repeat jumping errors): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H118-out-of-the-race-early (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H118-out-of-the-race-early: H118: out of the race early (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.