H120: one reason to forgive no negative

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H120: one reason to forgive no negative PROMISING green

   because At least one reason to forgive the last run and none of the confirmed warning signs (slow start, repeat errors, hard race on soft, flattered closer).

   (coalesce((last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5), 0) + coalesce((last_momentum_interrupted = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5), 0) + coalesce((last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield')), 0) + coalesce((remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_beaten_lengths > 10)), 0) + coalesce((last_code IN ('BD', 'UR', 'F')), 0)) >= 1 AND coalesce(last_slow_start, 0) = 0 AND NOT (remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 >= 2) AND NOT coalesce(last_going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND last_run_style IN ('led', 'prominent') AND last_under_pressure = 1 AND (last_headed = 1 OR last_weak_finish = 1), 0) AND NOT coalesce(last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND last_position > 1, 0)

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.17 on 5,189 bets, by period 1.12 · 1.23. info

   Betfair SP return +31.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.11). Zone: all. On H120: one reason to forgive no negative

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2,7531.12

   Later half2,4361.23

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.16 on 3,011 bets, by period 1.11 · 1.23. info

   Betfair SP return +15.6%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.12). Zone: all. On H120: one reason to forgive no negative

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1,5771.11

   Later half1,4341.23

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 1.19 on 3,591 bets, by period 1.12 · 1.29. info

   Betfair SP return +34.4%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.17). Zone: all. On H120: one reason to forgive no negative

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2,1311.12

   Later half1,4601.29

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 1.18 on 1,544 bets, by period 1.15 · 1.20. info

   Betfair SP return +27.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.05). Zone: all. On H120: one reason to forgive no negative

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half5861.15

   Later half9581.20

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 1.18 on 3,840 bets, by period 1.11 · 1.25. info

   Betfair SP return +33.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.14). Zone: all. On H120: one reason to forgive no negative

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2,0301.11

   Later half1,8101.25

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H120: one reason to forgive no negative Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [jumps] GREEN A/E 1.185 on 3591 bets (broad GREEN)

8. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   H120-one-reason-to-forgive-no-negative (H120: one reason to forgive no negative) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.17 on 5189 bets (periods 1.12 / 1.23); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H120-one-reason-to-forgive-no-negative