H120: one reason to forgive no negative

Mechanism and rationale

At least one reason to forgive the last run and none of the confirmed warning signs (slow start, repeat errors, hard race on soft, flattered closer).

The rule

(coalesce((last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5), 0) + coalesce((last_momentum_interrupted = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5), 0) + coalesce((last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield')), 0) + coalesce((remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_beaten_lengths > 10)), 0) + coalesce((last_code IN ('BD', 'UR', 'F')), 0)) >= 1 AND coalesce(last_slow_start, 0) = 0 AND NOT (remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 >= 2) AND NOT coalesce(last_going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND last_run_style IN ('led', 'prominent') AND last_under_pressure = 1 AND (last_headed = 1 OR last_weak_finish = 1), 0) AND NOT coalesce(last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND last_position > 1, 0)

Reads: last_raced_wide, last_position, last_beaten_lengths, last_momentum_interrupted, last_pulled_up, last_run_style, remarked_last3, jumping_errors_last3, last_jumping_error, last_code, last_slow_start, last_going_group, last_under_pressure, last_headed, last_weak_finish, last_race_tilt

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

(coalesce((last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5), 0) + coalesce((last_momentum_interrupted = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5), 0) + coalesce((last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield')), 0) + coalesce((remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_beaten_lengths > 10)), 0) + coalesce((last_code IN ('BD', 'UR', 'F')), 0)) >= 1 AND coalesce(last_slow_start, 0) = 0 AND NOT (remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 >= 2) AND NOT coalesce(last_going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND last_run_style IN ('led', 'prominent') AND last_under_pressure = 1 AND (last_headed = 1 OR last_weak_finish = 1), 0) AND NOT coalesce(last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND last_position > 1, 0)

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "((coalesce((last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5), 0) + coalesce((last_momentum_interrupted = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5), 0) + coalesce((last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield')), 0) + coalesce((remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_beaten_lengths > 10)), 0) + coalesce((last_code IN ('BD', 'UR', 'F')), 0)) >= 1 AND coalesce(last_slow_start, 0) = 0 AND NOT (remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 >= 2) AND NOT coalesce(last_going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND last_run_style IN ('led', 'prominent') AND last_under_pressure = 1 AND (last_headed = 1 OR last_weak_finish = 1), 0) AND NOT coalesce(last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND last_position > 1, 0)) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "((coalesce((last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5), 0) + coalesce((last_momentum_interrupted = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5), 0) + coalesce((last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield')), 0) + coalesce((remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_beaten_lengths > 10)), 0) + coalesce((last_code IN ('BD', 'UR', 'F')), 0)) >= 1 AND coalesce(last_slow_start, 0) = 0 AND NOT (remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 >= 2) AND NOT coalesce(last_going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND last_run_style IN ('led', 'prominent') AND last_under_pressure = 1 AND (last_headed = 1 OR last_weak_finish = 1), 0) AND NOT coalesce(last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND last_position > 1, 0)) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "((coalesce((last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5), 0) + coalesce((last_momentum_interrupted = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5), 0) + coalesce((last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield')), 0) + coalesce((remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_beaten_lengths > 10)), 0) + coalesce((last_code IN ('BD', 'UR', 'F')), 0)) >= 1 AND coalesce(last_slow_start, 0) = 0 AND NOT (remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 >= 2) AND NOT coalesce(last_going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND last_run_style IN ('led', 'prominent') AND last_under_pressure = 1 AND (last_headed = 1 OR last_weak_finish = 1), 0) AND NOT coalesce(last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND last_position > 1, 0)) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "((coalesce((last_raced_wide = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5), 0) + coalesce((last_momentum_interrupted = 1 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5), 0) + coalesce((last_pulled_up = 1 AND last_run_style IN ('held_up', 'midfield')), 0) + coalesce((remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_beaten_lengths > 10)), 0) + coalesce((last_code IN ('BD', 'UR', 'F')), 0)) >= 1 AND coalesce(last_slow_start, 0) = 0 AND NOT (remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 >= 2) AND NOT coalesce(last_going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND last_run_style IN ('led', 'prominent') AND last_under_pressure = 1 AND (last_headed = 1 OR last_weak_finish = 1), 0) AND NOT coalesce(last_run_style IN ('midfield', 'held_up') AND last_race_tilt >= 0.2 AND last_position > 1, 0)) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info handicap · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

3,840

A/E

1.18

winners vs the prices

SP return

-5.3%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+33.2%

3,829 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 11.2%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H120-one-reason-to-forgive-no-negative Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [jumps] GREEN A/E 1.185 on 3591 bets (broad GREEN)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H120-one-reason-to-forgive-no-negative (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H120-one-reason-to-forgive-no-negative (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H120-one-reason-to-forgive-no-negative (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H120-one-reason-to-forgive-no-negative (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for H120-one-reason-to-forgive-no-negative (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea H120-one-reason-to-forgive-no-negative: H120: one reason to forgive no negative (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.