H127: recruit to a strong yard

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H127: recruit to a strong yard KILLED red

   because First run for a new yard that wins 20%+ in this kind of race: the horse has been bought to improve.

   last_trainer_id IS NOT NULL AND last_trainer_id != trainer_id AND trainer_kind_runs >= 30 AND trainer_kind_wins * 5 >= trainer_kind_runs

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.95 on 1,251 bets, by period 0.85 · 1.12 · 0.88. info

   Betfair SP return -24.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.85 to 1.12. Zone: all. On H127: recruit to a strong yard

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-226010.85

   2023 to a year ago4571.12

   Last year1930.88

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 0.99 on 913 bets, by period 0.91 · 1.12 · 0.89. info

   Betfair SP return -29.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.12. Zone: all. On H127: recruit to a strong yard

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224030.91

   2023 to a year ago3671.12

   Last year1430.89

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 0.82 on 242 bets, by period 0.64 · 1.30. info

   Betfair SP return -51.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.64 to 1.30. Zone: all. On H127: recruit to a strong yard

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221430.64

   2023 to a year ago671.30

   Last year32–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   off 60+ days: A/E 0.94 on 1,066 bets, by period 0.83 · 1.13 · 0.88. info

   Betfair SP return -23.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.83 to 1.13. Zone: all. On H127: recruit to a strong yard

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-225230.83

   2023 to a year ago3751.13

   Last year1680.88

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   not the favourite: A/E 0.93 on 925 bets, by period 0.85 · 1.12 · 0.76. info

   Betfair SP return -29.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.76 to 1.12. Zone: all. On H127: recruit to a strong yard

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224420.85

   2023 to a year ago3431.12

   Last year1400.76

7. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H127: recruit to a strong yard Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [jumps] RED A/E 0.989 on 913 bets (broad RED)