H127: recruit to a strong yard

Mechanism and rationale

First run for a new yard that wins 20%+ in this kind of race: the horse has been bought to improve.

The rule

last_trainer_id IS NOT NULL AND last_trainer_id != trainer_id AND trainer_kind_runs >= 30 AND trainer_kind_wins * 5 >= trainer_kind_runs

Reads: last_trainer_id, trainer_id, trainer_kind_runs, trainer_kind_wins

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

last_trainer_id IS NOT NULL AND last_trainer_id != trainer_id AND trainer_kind_runs >= 30 AND trainer_kind_wins * 5 >= trainer_kind_runs

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(last_trainer_id IS NOT NULL AND last_trainer_id != trainer_id AND trainer_kind_runs >= 30 AND trainer_kind_wins * 5 >= trainer_kind_runs) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(last_trainer_id IS NOT NULL AND last_trainer_id != trainer_id AND trainer_kind_runs >= 30 AND trainer_kind_wins * 5 >= trainer_kind_runs) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "off 60+ days",
    "rule": "(last_trainer_id IS NOT NULL AND last_trainer_id != trainer_id AND trainer_kind_runs >= 30 AND trainer_kind_wins * 5 >= trainer_kind_runs) AND (days_since_last_run >= 60)"
  },
  {
    "name": "not the favourite",
    "rule": "(last_trainer_id IS NOT NULL AND last_trainer_id != trainer_id AND trainer_kind_runs >= 30 AND trainer_kind_wins * 5 >= trainer_kind_runs) AND (is_favourite = 0)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info not the favourite · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

925

A/E

0.93

winners vs the prices

SP return

-14.2%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-29.1%

139 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 11.2%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H127-recruit-to-a-strong-yard Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [jumps] RED A/E 0.989 on 913 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H127-recruit-to-a-strong-yard (not the favourite): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H127-recruit-to-a-strong-yard (off 60+ days): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H127-recruit-to-a-strong-yard (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H127-recruit-to-a-strong-yard (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for H127-recruit-to-a-strong-yard (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea H127-recruit-to-a-strong-yard: H127: recruit to a strong yard (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.