Threads · trainer-logistics · H132-first-runner-after-a-silent-month

H132: first runner after a silent month

Hypotheses: 1 (1 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Promising
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier N: a negative; best [the horse itself ran in the last 60 days] NEGATIVE A/E 0.831 on 317 bets (broad RED)

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H132: first runner after a silent month PROMISING negative
because An established yard with no runner at all in the last 30 days: shut down (a virus, the summer, the ground) and now starting again. Lore says fresh and healthy; the form figures say nothing either way.
```
t30_runs = 0 AND trainer_runs >= 300
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.92 on 825 bets, by period 0.77 · 1.01 · 0.82. info
Betfair SP return +6.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.77 to 1.01. Zone: all. On H132: first runner after a silent month
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-22750.77
2023 to a year ago4861.01
Last year2640.82
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
favourite or second favourite: A/E 0.86 on 137 bets, by period 1.04. info
Betfair SP return -47.9%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On H132: first runner after a silent month
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-2218–
2023 to a year ago801.04
Last year39–
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
jumps: A/E 1.01 on 407 bets, by period 1.18 · 0.71. info
Betfair SP return -49.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.71 to 1.18. Zone: all. On H132: first runner after a silent month
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-2222–
2023 to a year ago2441.18
Last year1410.71
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Flat: A/E 0.91 on 386 bets, by period 0.81 · 0.90 · 1.04. info
Betfair SP return +84.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.81 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H132: first runner after a silent month
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-22510.81
2023 to a year ago2210.90
Last year1141.04
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
the horse itself ran in the last 60 days: A/E 0.83 on 317 bets, by period 0.92 · 0.83. info
Betfair SP return +0.5%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H132: first runner after a silent month
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-2218–
2023 to a year ago1970.92
Last year1020.83
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H132: first runner after a silent month Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [the horse itself ran in the last 60 days] NEGATIVE A/E 0.831 on 317 bets (broad RED)

Where it started

An established yard with no runner at all in the last 30 days: shut down (a virus, the summer, the ground) and now starting again. Lore says fresh and healthy; the form figures say nothing either way.

H132: first runner after a silent month

Hypotheses

1 (1 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Promising

Open questions

Last activity

15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier N: a negative; best [the horse itself ran in the last 60 days] NEGATIVE A/E 0.831 on 317 bets (broad RED)

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H132: first runner after a silent month PROMISING negative
because An established yard with no runner at all in the last 30 days: shut down (a virus, the summer, the ground) and now starting again. Lore says fresh and healthy; the form figures say nothing either way.
```
t30_runs = 0 AND trainer_runs >= 300
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.92 on 825 bets, by period 0.77 · 1.01 · 0.82. info
Betfair SP return +6.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.77 to 1.01. Zone: all. On H132: first runner after a silent month
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-22750.77
2023 to a year ago4861.01
Last year2640.82
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
favourite or second favourite: A/E 0.86 on 137 bets, by period 1.04. info
Betfair SP return -47.9%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On H132: first runner after a silent month
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-2218–
2023 to a year ago801.04
Last year39–
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
jumps: A/E 1.01 on 407 bets, by period 1.18 · 0.71. info
Betfair SP return -49.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.71 to 1.18. Zone: all. On H132: first runner after a silent month
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-2222–
2023 to a year ago2441.18
Last year1410.71
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Flat: A/E 0.91 on 386 bets, by period 0.81 · 0.90 · 1.04. info
Betfair SP return +84.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.81 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H132: first runner after a silent month
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-22510.81
2023 to a year ago2210.90
Last year1141.04
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
the horse itself ran in the last 60 days: A/E 0.83 on 317 bets, by period 0.92 · 0.83. info
Betfair SP return +0.5%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H132: first runner after a silent month
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-2218–
2023 to a year ago1970.92
Last year1020.83
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H132: first runner after a silent month Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [the horse itself ran in the last 60 days] NEGATIVE A/E 0.831 on 317 bets (broad RED)