H132: first runner after a silent month

Mechanism and rationale

An established yard with no runner at all in the last 30 days: shut down (a virus, the summer, the ground) and now starting again. Lore says fresh and healthy; the form figures say nothing either way.

The rule

t30_runs = 0 AND trainer_runs >= 300

Reads: t30_runs, trainer_runs

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

t30_runs = 0 AND trainer_runs >= 300

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "favourite or second favourite",
    "rule": "(t30_runs = 0 AND trainer_runs >= 300) AND (sp_rank <= 2)"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(t30_runs = 0 AND trainer_runs >= 300) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(t30_runs = 0 AND trainer_runs >= 300) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "the horse itself ran in the last 60 days",
    "rule": "(t30_runs = 0 AND trainer_runs >= 300) AND (days_since_last_run <= 60)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info the horse itself ran in the last 60 days · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

317

A/E

0.83

winners vs the prices

SP return

-44.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+0.5%

102 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 6.9%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H132-first-runner-after-a-silent-month Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [the horse itself ran in the last 60 days] NEGATIVE A/E 0.831 on 317 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H132-first-runner-after-a-silent-month (the horse itself ran in the last 60 days): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H132-first-runner-after-a-silent-month (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H132-first-runner-after-a-silent-month (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H132-first-runner-after-a-silent-month (favourite or second favourite): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for H132-first-runner-after-a-silent-month (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea H132-first-runner-after-a-silent-month: H132: first runner after a silent month (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.