Threads · trainer-form · H133-small-yard-in-a-purple-patch
H133: small yard in a purple patch
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [14/1 or shorter] RED A/E 1.046 on 5106 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H133: small yard in a purple patch KILLED red
because A small yard (5-14 runners in 30 days) with three or more winners at twice what its prices implied: the horses are well, and the market does not re-rate an unfashionable name on a handful of runs. (Plain yard form was tested only for yards with 15+ runs and was nothing.)
t30_runs BETWEEN 5 AND 14 AND t30_wins >= 3 AND t30_wins >= 2 * t30_exp
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.04 on 7,254 bets, by period 1.00 · 1.08 · 1.05. info
Betfair SP return +15.1%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.08. Zone: all. On H133: small yard in a purple patch
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-222,9621.002023 to a year ago3,0431.08Last year1,2491.05Tested15 Oct, 23:10
handicap: A/E 1.04 on 5,168 bets, by period 1.01 · 1.06 · 1.06. info
Betfair SP return +11.8%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.05). Zone: all. On H133: small yard in a purple patch
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-222,0771.012023 to a year ago2,1981.06Last year8931.06Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.05 on 5,106 bets, by period 1.00 · 1.09 · 1.03. info
Betfair SP return -4.2%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.09. Zone: all. On H133: small yard in a purple patch
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-222,0041.002023 to a year ago2,1921.09Last year9101.03Tested15 Oct, 23:10
the horse ran in the last 30 days: A/E 1.03 on 3,930 bets, by period 0.99 · 1.02 · 1.14. info
Betfair SP return +23.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.14. Zone: all. On H133: small yard in a purple patch
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-221,6230.992023 to a year ago1,6121.02Last year695Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H133: small yard in a purple patch Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [14/1 or shorter] RED A/E 1.046 on 5106 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
A small yard (5-14 runners in 30 days) with three or more winners at twice what its prices implied: the horses are well, and the market does not re-rate an unfashionable name on a handful of runs. (Plain yard form was tested only for yards with 15+ runs and was nothing.)