H133: small yard in a purple patch

Mechanism and rationale

A small yard (5-14 runners in 30 days) with three or more winners at twice what its prices implied: the horses are well, and the market does not re-rate an unfashionable name on a handful of runs. (Plain yard form was tested only for yards with 15+ runs and was nothing.)

The rule

t30_runs BETWEEN 5 AND 14 AND t30_wins >= 3 AND t30_wins >= 2 * t30_exp

Reads: t30_runs, t30_wins, t30_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

t30_runs BETWEEN 5 AND 14 AND t30_wins >= 3 AND t30_wins >= 2 * t30_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(t30_runs BETWEEN 5 AND 14 AND t30_wins >= 3 AND t30_wins >= 2 * t30_exp) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(t30_runs BETWEEN 5 AND 14 AND t30_wins >= 3 AND t30_wins >= 2 * t30_exp) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "the horse ran in the last 30 days",
    "rule": "(t30_runs BETWEEN 5 AND 14 AND t30_wins >= 3 AND t30_wins >= 2 * t30_exp) AND (days_since_last_run <= 30)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info the horse ran in the last 30 days · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

3,930

A/E

1.03

winners vs the prices

SP return

-20.0%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+23.1%

693 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 14.5%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H133-small-yard-in-a-purple-patch Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [14/1 or shorter] RED A/E 1.046 on 5106 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H133-small-yard-in-a-purple-patch (the horse ran in the last 30 days): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H133-small-yard-in-a-purple-patch (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H133-small-yard-in-a-purple-patch (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H133-small-yard-in-a-purple-patch (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H133-small-yard-in-a-purple-patch: H133: small yard in a purple patch (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.