Threads · trainer-jockey · H136-the-jockey-the-yard-seldom-uses-but-wins-with
H136: the jockey the yard seldom uses but wins with
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.979 on 21587 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H136: the jockey the yard seldom uses but wins with KILLED red
because A jockey with 15+ rides for the yard, under a tenth of its runners, and a strike rate together 1.8 times the yard's own: booked for the ones that matter. The market reads the jockey's overall figures, not the pairing.
pairing_runs >= 15 AND pairing_runs * 10 <= trainer_runs AND pairing_wins * trainer_runs >= 1.8 * trainer_wins * pairing_runs
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.98 on 21,587 bets, by period 1.01 · 0.95 · 1.01. info
Betfair SP return -10.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.95 to 1.01. Zone: all. On H136: the jockey the yard seldom uses but wins with
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-225,6041.012023 to a year ago11,3330.95Last year4,650Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H136: the jockey the yard seldom uses but wins with Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.979 on 21587 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
A jockey with 15+ rides for the yard, under a tenth of its runners, and a strike rate together 1.8 times the yard's own: booked for the ones that matter. The market reads the jockey's overall figures, not the pairing.