Hypotheses · trainer-jockey · H136-the-jockey-the-yard-seldom-uses-but-wins-with
H136: the jockey the yard seldom uses but wins with
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.979 on 21587 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H136: the jockey the yard seldom uses but wins with” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
A jockey with 15+ rides for the yard, under a tenth of its runners, and a strike rate together 1.8 times the yard's own: booked for the ones that matter. The market reads the jockey's overall figures, not the pairing.
The rule
pairing_runs >= 15 AND pairing_runs * 10 <= trainer_runs AND pairing_wins * trainer_runs >= 1.8 * trainer_wins * pairing_runs
Reads: pairing_runs, trainer_runs, pairing_wins, trainer_wins
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
pairing_runs >= 15 AND pairing_runs * 10 <= trainer_runs AND pairing_wins * trainer_runs >= 1.8 * trainer_wins * pairing_runs
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 21,587
- A/E
- 0.98
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -24.8%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -10.4%
- 4,633 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 12.1%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H136-the-jockey-the-yard-seldom-uses-but-wins-with Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.979 on 21587 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H136-the-jockey-the-yard-seldom-uses-but-wins-with (broad): info
· importer
New idea H136-the-jockey-the-yard-seldom-uses-but-wins-with: H136: the jockey the yard seldom uses but wins with (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.