Threads · trainer-jockey · H137-stable-jockey-on-the-yards-outsider
H137: stable jockey on the yards outsider
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.978 on 10670 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H137: stable jockey on the yards outsider KILLED red
because The yard runs two or more, and its most-used jockey (50+ rides for it) is on one the market makes the outsider of them. He has ridden both at home; the price follows the form book.
n_stable >= 2 AND stable_rank >= 2 AND runner_id IN (SELECT runner_id FROM (SELECT runner_id, pairing_runs, MAX(pairing_runs) OVER (PARTITION BY race_id, trainer_id) AS top FROM lab.runs WHERE trainer_id IS NOT NULL) WHERE pairing_runs = top AND pairing_runs >= 50)
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.98 on 10,670 bets, by period 0.99 · 0.93 · 1.06. info
Betfair SP return -20.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.06. Zone: all. On H137: stable jockey on the yards outsider
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-223,6930.992023 to a year ago4,9910.93Last year1,986Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H137: stable jockey on the yards outsider Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.978 on 10670 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
The yard runs two or more, and its most-used jockey (50+ rides for it) is on one the market makes the outsider of them. He has ridden both at home; the price follows the form book.