Hypotheses · trainer-jockey · H137-stable-jockey-on-the-yards-outsider
H137: stable jockey on the yards outsider
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.978 on 10670 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H137: stable jockey on the yards outsider” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
The yard runs two or more, and its most-used jockey (50+ rides for it) is on one the market makes the outsider of them. He has ridden both at home; the price follows the form book.
The rule
n_stable >= 2 AND stable_rank >= 2 AND runner_id IN (SELECT runner_id FROM (SELECT runner_id, pairing_runs, MAX(pairing_runs) OVER (PARTITION BY race_id, trainer_id) AS top FROM lab.runs WHERE trainer_id IS NOT NULL) WHERE pairing_runs = top AND pairing_runs >= 50)
Reads: n_stable, stable_rank, runner_id, select, from, pairing_runs, over, partition, by, race_id, trainer_id, top, lab
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
n_stable >= 2 AND stable_rank >= 2 AND runner_id IN (SELECT runner_id FROM (SELECT runner_id, pairing_runs, MAX(pairing_runs) OVER (PARTITION BY race_id, trainer_id) AS top FROM lab.runs WHERE trainer_id IS NOT NULL) WHERE pairing_runs = top AND pairing_runs >= 50)
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 10,670
- A/E
- 0.98
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -37.2%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -20.4%
- 1,981 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 5.1%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H137-stable-jockey-on-the-yards-outsider Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.978 on 10670 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H137-stable-jockey-on-the-yards-outsider (broad): info
· importer
New idea H137-stable-jockey-on-the-yards-outsider: H137: stable jockey on the yards outsider (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.