H140: mullins hurdlers in flat staying races

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H140: mullins hurdlers in flat staying races KILLED amber

   because Willie Mullins runners with hurdles experience in Flat races of a mile and a half or more: fit jumpers on Flat marks that do not reflect what they have shown over hurdles.

   trainer LIKE 'W. P. Mullins%' AND race_type = 'Flat' AND distance_yards >= 2640 AND hurdle_runs >= 1

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.91 on 239 bets, by period 0.85 · 0.83 · 1.23. info

   Betfair SP return -24.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.83 to 1.23. Zone: all. On H140: mullins hurdlers in flat staying races

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221110.85

   2023 to a year ago820.83

   Last year46

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 0.87 on 164 bets, by period 0.64 · 1.02. info

   Unstable: periods range 0.64 to 1.02. Zone: all. On H140: mullins hurdlers in flat staying races

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22790.64

   2023 to a year ago591.02

   Last year26–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   in Britain: A/E 1.28 on 65 bets. info

   Zone: all. On H140: mullins hurdlers in flat staying races

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-2222–

   2023 to a year ago33–

   Last year10–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   two miles or more: A/E 0.77 on 133 bets, by period 0.90 · 0.69. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H140: mullins hurdlers in flat staying races

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22640.90

   2023 to a year ago470.69

   Last year22–

6. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H140: mullins hurdlers in flat staying races Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [in Britain] AMBER A/E 1.28 on 65 bets (broad RED)

7. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   H140-mullins-hurdlers-in-flat-staying-races (H140: mullins hurdlers in flat staying races) was predicted positive but went the other way in the earlier research: A/E 0.91 on 239 bets (periods 0.85 / 0.83 / 1.23).

   surprise0.40waiting for a reasoning passfrom H140-mullins-hurdlers-in-flat-staying-races