H140: mullins hurdlers in flat staying races

Mechanism and rationale

Willie Mullins runners with hurdles experience in Flat races of a mile and a half or more: fit jumpers on Flat marks that do not reflect what they have shown over hurdles.

The rule

trainer LIKE 'W. P. Mullins%' AND race_type = 'Flat' AND distance_yards >= 2640 AND hurdle_runs >= 1

Reads: trainer, race_type, distance_yards, hurdle_runs

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

trainer LIKE 'W. P. Mullins%' AND race_type = 'Flat' AND distance_yards >= 2640 AND hurdle_runs >= 1

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'W. P. Mullins%' AND race_type = 'Flat' AND distance_yards >= 2640 AND hurdle_runs >= 1) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "in Britain",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'W. P. Mullins%' AND race_type = 'Flat' AND distance_yards >= 2640 AND hurdle_runs >= 1) AND (region = 'GB')"
  },
  {
    "name": "two miles or more",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'W. P. Mullins%' AND race_type = 'Flat' AND distance_yards >= 2640 AND hurdle_runs >= 1) AND (distance_yards >= 3520)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info two miles or more · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

133

A/E

0.77

winners vs the prices

SP return

-54.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

–

22 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 8.3%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H140-mullins-hurdlers-in-flat-staying-races Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [in Britain] AMBER A/E 1.28 on 65 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H140-mullins-hurdlers-in-flat-staying-races (two miles or more): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H140-mullins-hurdlers-in-flat-staying-races (in Britain): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H140-mullins-hurdlers-in-flat-staying-races (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H140-mullins-hurdlers-in-flat-staying-races (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H140-mullins-hurdlers-in-flat-staying-races: H140: mullins hurdlers in flat staying races (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.