H143: skelton handicap hurdlers off a break

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H143: skelton handicap hurdlers off a break KILLED amber

   because Dan Skelton's handicap hurdlers on their first run for 90+ days: the yard lays horses out for a target and they are ready on the day.

   trainer LIKE 'Dan Skelton%' AND race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND days_since_last_run >= 90

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.94 on 284 bets, by period 0.92 · 0.90 · 1.09. info

   Betfair SP return -39.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.09. Zone: all. On H143: skelton handicap hurdlers off a break

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22890.92

   2023 to a year ago1420.90

   Last year53

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   field of 12 or more: A/E 1.11 on 93 bets. info

   Zone: all. On H143: skelton handicap hurdlers off a break

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-2231–

   2023 to a year ago38–

   Last year24–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.96 on 213 bets, by period 0.96 · 0.90. info

   Betfair SP return -2.3%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H143: skelton handicap hurdlers off a break

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22720.96

   2023 to a year ago1080.90

   Last year33–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   class 3 or better: A/E 0.86 on 143 bets, by period 0.56 · 0.85. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H143: skelton handicap hurdlers off a break

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22490.56

   2023 to a year ago660.85

   Last year28–

6. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H143: skelton handicap hurdlers off a break Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [field of 12 or more] AMBER A/E 1.109 on 93 bets (broad RED)