H143: skelton handicap hurdlers off a break

Mechanism and rationale

Dan Skelton's handicap hurdlers on their first run for 90+ days: the yard lays horses out for a target and they are ready on the day.

The rule

trainer LIKE 'Dan Skelton%' AND race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND days_since_last_run >= 90

Reads: trainer, race_type, is_handicap, days_since_last_run

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

trainer LIKE 'Dan Skelton%' AND race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND days_since_last_run >= 90

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "field of 12 or more",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Dan Skelton%' AND race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND days_since_last_run >= 90) AND (field_size >= 12)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Dan Skelton%' AND race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND days_since_last_run >= 90) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "class 3 or better",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Dan Skelton%' AND race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND days_since_last_run >= 90) AND (race_class <= 3)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info class 3 or better · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

143

A/E

0.86

winners vs the prices

SP return

-37.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

–

28 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 9.1%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H143-skelton-handicap-hurdlers-off-a-break Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [field of 12 or more] AMBER A/E 1.109 on 93 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H143-skelton-handicap-hurdlers-off-a-break (class 3 or better): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H143-skelton-handicap-hurdlers-off-a-break (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H143-skelton-handicap-hurdlers-off-a-break (field of 12 or more): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H143-skelton-handicap-hurdlers-off-a-break (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H143-skelton-handicap-hurdlers-off-a-break: H143: skelton handicap hurdlers off a break (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.