H145: johnston back within a week

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H145: johnston back within a week PROMISING negative

   because Johnston-trained Flat horses back within seven days: the yard's method is to run tough, fit horses often, and the market treats a quick return as a risk.

   trainer LIKE '%Johnston%' AND race_type = 'Flat' AND days_since_last_run <= 7

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.86 on 435 bets, by period 0.85 · 0.81. info

   Betfair SP return +113.8%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H145: johnston back within a week

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222080.85

   2023 to a year ago1920.81

   Last year35–

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   won last time: A/E 0.64 on 97 bets, by period 0.50 · 0.77. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H145: johnston back within a week

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22510.50

   2023 to a year ago420.77

   Last year4–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 0.83 on 398 bets, by period 0.80 · 0.78. info

   Betfair SP return +133.8%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H145: johnston back within a week

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221810.80

   2023 to a year ago1850.78

   Last year32–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   three-year-old: A/E 0.81 on 209 bets, by period 0.81 · 0.77. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H145: johnston back within a week

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221120.81

   2023 to a year ago830.77

   Last year14–

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H145: johnston back within a week Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [handicap] NEGATIVE A/E 0.829 on 398 bets (broad NEGATIVE)