H145: johnston back within a week

Mechanism and rationale

Johnston-trained Flat horses back within seven days: the yard's method is to run tough, fit horses often, and the market treats a quick return as a risk.

The rule

trainer LIKE '%Johnston%' AND race_type = 'Flat' AND days_since_last_run <= 7

Reads: trainer, race_type, days_since_last_run

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

trainer LIKE '%Johnston%' AND race_type = 'Flat' AND days_since_last_run <= 7

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "won last time",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE '%Johnston%' AND race_type = 'Flat' AND days_since_last_run <= 7) AND (last_position = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE '%Johnston%' AND race_type = 'Flat' AND days_since_last_run <= 7) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "three-year-old",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE '%Johnston%' AND race_type = 'Flat' AND days_since_last_run <= 7) AND (age = 3)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info three-year-old · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

209

A/E

0.81

winners vs the prices

SP return

-18.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

–

14 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 17.7%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H145-johnston-back-within-a-week Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [handicap] NEGATIVE A/E 0.829 on 398 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H145-johnston-back-within-a-week (three-year-old): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H145-johnston-back-within-a-week (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H145-johnston-back-within-a-week (won last time): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H145-johnston-back-within-a-week (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H145-johnston-back-within-a-week: H145: johnston back within a week (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.