Threads · trainer-named · H149-charlie-appleby-short-prices-in-britain

H149: charlie appleby short prices in britain

Hypotheses: 1 (1 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Promising
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 16 Oct, 10:10

Where it stands: H149-charlie-appleby-short-prices-in-britain (H149: charlie appleby short prices in britain) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.05 on 715 bets (periods 1.01 / 1.09 / 1.07); now PROMISING.

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H149: charlie appleby short prices in britain PROMISING green
because Charlie Appleby runners in Britain at 6/4 or shorter. Two-sided: either the Godolphin blue is overbet, or a yard that places horses this precisely still beats its prices.
```
trainer LIKE 'Charlie Appleby%' AND region = 'GB' AND sp_decimal <= 2.5
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.05 on 715 bets, by period 1.01 · 1.09 · 1.07. info
Betfair SP return +2.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.08). Zone: all. On H149: charlie appleby short prices in britain
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-223221.01
2023 to a year ago2811.09
Last year1121.07
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
two-year-old: A/E 1.01 on 376 bets, by period 0.96 · 1.04 · 1.09. info
Betfair SP return +4.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.09. Zone: all. On H149: charlie appleby short prices in britain
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221630.96
2023 to a year ago1471.04
Last year66
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
three-year-old: A/E 1.12 on 288 bets, by period 1.08 · 1.20 · 1.03. info
Betfair SP return -2.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.17). Zone: all. On H149: charlie appleby short prices in britain
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221341.08
2023 to a year ago1111.20
Last year431.03
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
not a handicap: A/E 1.04 on 648 bets, by period 0.98 · 1.07 · 1.09. info
Betfair SP return +5.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.09. Zone: all. On H149: charlie appleby short prices in britain
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222740.98
2023 to a year ago2651.07
Last year109
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
debut: A/E 1.02 on 162 bets, by period 0.89 · 1.00. info
Betfair SP return +21.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H149: charlie appleby short prices in britain
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-22580.89
2023 to a year ago711.00
Last year33–
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H149: charlie appleby short prices in britain Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [three-year-old] GREEN A/E 1.118 on 288 bets (broad AMBER)
Observed16 Oct, 10:10
H149-charlie-appleby-short-prices-in-britain (H149: charlie appleby short prices in britain) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.05 on 715 bets (periods 1.01 / 1.09 / 1.07); now PROMISING.
result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H149-charlie-appleby-short-prices-in-britain

Where it started

Charlie Appleby runners in Britain at 6/4 or shorter. Two-sided: either the Godolphin blue is overbet, or a yard that places horses this precisely still beats its prices.

H149: charlie appleby short prices in britain

Hypotheses

1 (1 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Promising

Open questions

Last activity

16 Oct, 10:10

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H149: charlie appleby short prices in britain PROMISING green
because Charlie Appleby runners in Britain at 6/4 or shorter. Two-sided: either the Godolphin blue is overbet, or a yard that places horses this precisely still beats its prices.
```
trainer LIKE 'Charlie Appleby%' AND region = 'GB' AND sp_decimal <= 2.5
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.05 on 715 bets, by period 1.01 · 1.09 · 1.07. info
Betfair SP return +2.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.08). Zone: all. On H149: charlie appleby short prices in britain
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-223221.01
2023 to a year ago2811.09
Last year1121.07
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
two-year-old: A/E 1.01 on 376 bets, by period 0.96 · 1.04 · 1.09. info
Betfair SP return +4.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.09. Zone: all. On H149: charlie appleby short prices in britain
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221630.96
2023 to a year ago1471.04
Last year66
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
three-year-old: A/E 1.12 on 288 bets, by period 1.08 · 1.20 · 1.03. info
Betfair SP return -2.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.17). Zone: all. On H149: charlie appleby short prices in britain
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221341.08
2023 to a year ago1111.20
Last year431.03
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
not a handicap: A/E 1.04 on 648 bets, by period 0.98 · 1.07 · 1.09. info
Betfair SP return +5.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.09. Zone: all. On H149: charlie appleby short prices in britain
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222740.98
2023 to a year ago2651.07
Last year109
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
debut: A/E 1.02 on 162 bets, by period 0.89 · 1.00. info
Betfair SP return +21.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H149: charlie appleby short prices in britain
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-22580.89
2023 to a year ago711.00
Last year33–
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H149: charlie appleby short prices in britain Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [three-year-old] GREEN A/E 1.118 on 288 bets (broad AMBER)
Observed16 Oct, 10:10
H149-charlie-appleby-short-prices-in-britain (H149: charlie appleby short prices in britain) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.05 on 715 bets (periods 1.01 / 1.09 / 1.07); now PROMISING.
result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H149-charlie-appleby-short-prices-in-britain

Where it started

Charlie Appleby runners in Britain at 6/4 or shorter. Two-sided: either the Godolphin blue is overbet, or a yard that places horses this precisely still beats its prices.