H149: charlie appleby short prices in britain

Mechanism and rationale

Charlie Appleby runners in Britain at 6/4 or shorter. Two-sided: either the Godolphin blue is overbet, or a yard that places horses this precisely still beats its prices.

The rule

trainer LIKE 'Charlie Appleby%' AND region = 'GB' AND sp_decimal <= 2.5

Reads: trainer, region, sp_decimal

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

trainer LIKE 'Charlie Appleby%' AND region = 'GB' AND sp_decimal <= 2.5

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "two-year-old",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Charlie Appleby%' AND region = 'GB' AND sp_decimal <= 2.5) AND (age = 2)"
  },
  {
    "name": "three-year-old",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Charlie Appleby%' AND region = 'GB' AND sp_decimal <= 2.5) AND (age = 3)"
  },
  {
    "name": "not a handicap",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Charlie Appleby%' AND region = 'GB' AND sp_decimal <= 2.5) AND (is_handicap = 0)"
  },
  {
    "name": "debut",
    "rule": "(trainer LIKE 'Charlie Appleby%' AND region = 'GB' AND sp_decimal <= 2.5) AND (prior_runs = 0)"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info debut · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

162

A/E

1.02

winners vs the prices

SP return

-9.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+21.0%

33 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 49.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H149-charlie-appleby-short-prices-in-britain Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [three-year-old] GREEN A/E 1.118 on 288 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H149-charlie-appleby-short-prices-in-britain (debut): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H149-charlie-appleby-short-prices-in-britain (not a handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H149-charlie-appleby-short-prices-in-britain (three-year-old): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H149-charlie-appleby-short-prices-in-britain (two-year-old): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for H149-charlie-appleby-short-prices-in-britain (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea H149-charlie-appleby-short-prices-in-britain: H149: charlie appleby short prices in britain (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.