Threads · trainer-move · H15-yard-good-with-recruits

H15: yard good with recruits

Hypotheses: 1 (1 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Promising
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 16 Oct, 10:10

Where it stands: H15-yard-good-with-recruits (H15: yard good with recruits) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.08 on 4195 bets (periods 0.99 / 1.11 / 1.13); now PROMISING.

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H15: yard good with recruits PROMISING green
because First run for a new yard whose earlier recruits beat the market by 30%+ first time.
```
tx_new_yard_runs >= 15 AND tx_new_yard_wins >= 1.3 * tx_new_yard_exp
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.08 on 4,195 bets, by period 0.99 · 1.11 · 1.13. info
Betfair SP return +10.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.13. Zone: all. On H15: yard good with recruits
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221,0360.99
2023 to a year ago2,3031.11
Last year8561.13
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
jumps: A/E 1.06 on 1,501 bets, by period 0.85 · 1.13 · 1.12. info
Betfair SP return +19.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.85 to 1.13. Zone: all. On H15: yard good with recruits
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-223760.85
2023 to a year ago8201.13
Last year3051.12
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Flat: A/E 1.10 on 2,606 bets, by period 1.11 · 1.08 · 1.16. info
Betfair SP return +8.4%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.08). Zone: all. On H15: yard good with recruits
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-226241.11
2023 to a year ago1,4491.08
Last year5331.16
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
off 60+ days: A/E 1.07 on 3,125 bets, by period 0.99 · 1.14 · 0.97. info
Betfair SP return -9.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.14. Zone: all. On H15: yard good with recruits
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-227390.99
2023 to a year ago1,7671.14
Last year6190.97
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H15: yard good with recruits Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [Flat] GREEN A/E 1.104 on 2606 bets (broad AMBER)
Observed16 Oct, 10:10
H15-yard-good-with-recruits (H15: yard good with recruits) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.08 on 4195 bets (periods 0.99 / 1.11 / 1.13); now PROMISING.
result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H15-yard-good-with-recruits

Where it started

First run for a new yard whose earlier recruits beat the market by 30%+ first time.

H15: yard good with recruits

Hypotheses

1 (1 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Promising

Open questions

Last activity

16 Oct, 10:10

Where it stands: H15-yard-good-with-recruits (H15: yard good with recruits) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.08 on 4195 bets (periods 0.99 / 1.11 / 1.13); now PROMISING.

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H15: yard good with recruits PROMISING green
because First run for a new yard whose earlier recruits beat the market by 30%+ first time.
```
tx_new_yard_runs >= 15 AND tx_new_yard_wins >= 1.3 * tx_new_yard_exp
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.08 on 4,195 bets, by period 0.99 · 1.11 · 1.13. info
Betfair SP return +10.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.13. Zone: all. On H15: yard good with recruits
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221,0360.99
2023 to a year ago2,3031.11
Last year8561.13
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
jumps: A/E 1.06 on 1,501 bets, by period 0.85 · 1.13 · 1.12. info
Betfair SP return +19.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.85 to 1.13. Zone: all. On H15: yard good with recruits
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-223760.85
2023 to a year ago8201.13
Last year3051.12
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Flat: A/E 1.10 on 2,606 bets, by period 1.11 · 1.08 · 1.16. info
Betfair SP return +8.4%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.08). Zone: all. On H15: yard good with recruits
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-226241.11
2023 to a year ago1,4491.08
Last year5331.16
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
off 60+ days: A/E 1.07 on 3,125 bets, by period 0.99 · 1.14 · 0.97. info
Betfair SP return -9.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.14. Zone: all. On H15: yard good with recruits
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-227390.99
2023 to a year ago1,7671.14
Last year6190.97
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H15: yard good with recruits Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [Flat] GREEN A/E 1.104 on 2606 bets (broad AMBER)
Observed16 Oct, 10:10
H15-yard-good-with-recruits (H15: yard good with recruits) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.08 on 4195 bets (periods 0.99 / 1.11 / 1.13); now PROMISING.
result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H15-yard-good-with-recruits

Where it started

First run for a new yard whose earlier recruits beat the market by 30%+ first time.