H15: yard good with recruits

Mechanism and rationale

First run for a new yard whose earlier recruits beat the market by 30%+ first time.

The rule

tx_new_yard_runs >= 15 AND tx_new_yard_wins >= 1.3 * tx_new_yard_exp

Reads: tx_new_yard_runs, tx_new_yard_wins, tx_new_yard_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

tx_new_yard_runs >= 15 AND tx_new_yard_wins >= 1.3 * tx_new_yard_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(tx_new_yard_runs >= 15 AND tx_new_yard_wins >= 1.3 * tx_new_yard_exp) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(tx_new_yard_runs >= 15 AND tx_new_yard_wins >= 1.3 * tx_new_yard_exp) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "off 60+ days",
    "rule": "(tx_new_yard_runs >= 15 AND tx_new_yard_wins >= 1.3 * tx_new_yard_exp) AND (days_since_last_run >= 60)"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info off 60+ days · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

3,125

A/E

1.07

winners vs the prices

SP return

-22.2%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-9.3%

618 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 9.3%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H15-yard-good-with-recruits Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [Flat] GREEN A/E 1.104 on 2606 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H15-yard-good-with-recruits (off 60+ days): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H15-yard-good-with-recruits (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H15-yard-good-with-recruits (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H15-yard-good-with-recruits (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H15-yard-good-with-recruits: H15: yard good with recruits (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.