Threads · trainer-specialism · H151-bumper-debutant-from-a-bumper-yard
H151: bumper debutant from a bumper yard
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.979 on 1358 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H151: bumper debutant from a bumper yard KILLED red
because A newcomer in a bumper from a yard that wins 20%+ of its bumpers (30+ runs). There is no form, so the yard is most of the evidence, and its record with this exact kind of horse is the relevant one.
race_type = 'Bumper' AND prior_runs = 0 AND trainer_kind_runs >= 30 AND trainer_kind_wins * 5 >= trainer_kind_runs
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.98 on 1,358 bets, by period 1.00 · 0.96 · 0.96. info
Betfair SP return -12.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H151: bumper debutant from a bumper yard
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-225581.002023 to a year ago5640.96Last year2360.96Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H151: bumper debutant from a bumper yard Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.979 on 1358 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
A newcomer in a bumper from a yard that wins 20%+ of its bumpers (30+ runs). There is no form, so the yard is most of the evidence, and its record with this exact kind of horse is the relevant one.