Hypotheses · trainer-specialism · H151-bumper-debutant-from-a-bumper-yard
H151: bumper debutant from a bumper yard
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.979 on 1358 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H151: bumper debutant from a bumper yard” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
A newcomer in a bumper from a yard that wins 20%+ of its bumpers (30+ runs). There is no form, so the yard is most of the evidence, and its record with this exact kind of horse is the relevant one.
The rule
race_type = 'Bumper' AND prior_runs = 0 AND trainer_kind_runs >= 30 AND trainer_kind_wins * 5 >= trainer_kind_runs
Reads: race_type, prior_runs, trainer_kind_runs, trainer_kind_wins
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type = 'Bumper' AND prior_runs = 0 AND trainer_kind_runs >= 30 AND trainer_kind_wins * 5 >= trainer_kind_runs
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 1,358
- A/E
- 0.98
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -15.9%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -12.2%
- 236 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 25.3%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H151-bumper-debutant-from-a-bumper-yard Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.979 on 1358 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H151-bumper-debutant-from-a-bumper-yard (broad): info
· importer
New idea H151-bumper-debutant-from-a-bumper-yard: H151: bumper debutant from a bumper yard (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.