Threads · trainer-tactics · H153-first-string-in-a-small-field-the-yard-can-control
H153: first string in a small field the yard can control
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.001 on 5412 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H153: first string in a small field the yard can control KILLED red
because The yard runs two or more in a field of seven or fewer, and this is its shortest-priced: with a third of the field it can set the race up for its first string.
n_stable >= 2 AND field_size <= 7 AND stable_rank = 1
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.00 on 5,412 bets, by period 1.00 · 1.03 · 0.93. info
Betfair SP return -3.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.03. Zone: all. On H153: first string in a small field the yard can control
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-222,0401.002023 to a year ago2,3661.03Last year1,006Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H153: first string in a small field the yard can control Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.001 on 5412 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
The yard runs two or more in a field of seven or fewer, and this is its shortest-priced: with a third of the field it can set the race up for its first string.