Hypotheses · trainer-tactics · H153-first-string-in-a-small-field-the-yard-can-control
H153: first string in a small field the yard can control
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.001 on 5412 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H153: first string in a small field the yard can control” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
The yard runs two or more in a field of seven or fewer, and this is its shortest-priced: with a third of the field it can set the race up for its first string.
The rule
n_stable >= 2 AND field_size <= 7 AND stable_rank = 1
Reads: n_stable, field_size, stable_rank
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
n_stable >= 2 AND field_size <= 7 AND stable_rank = 1
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 5,412
- A/E
- 1.00
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -12.6%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -3.0%
- 999 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 24.0%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H153-first-string-in-a-small-field-the-yard-can-control Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.001 on 5412 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H153-first-string-in-a-small-field-the-yard-can-control (broad): info
· importer
New idea H153-first-string-in-a-small-field-the-yard-can-control: H153: first string in a small field the yard can control (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.