H156: three year olds against elders in november and december

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H156: three year olds against elders in november and december KILLED red

   because Three-year-olds meeting older horses in handicaps over a mile or more in November and December: nearly four, still receiving an allowance, and often still improving.

   race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 3 AND month IN (11, 12) AND distance_yards >= 1760 AND race_id IN (SELECT race_id FROM lab.runs GROUP BY race_id HAVING MIN(age) = 3 AND MAX(age) >= 4)

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.03 on 4,274 bets, by period 1.04 · 1.04 · 0.97. info

   Betfair SP return +6.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H156: three year olds against elders in november and december

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222,2001.04

   2023 to a year ago1,4061.04

   Last year668

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H156: three year olds against elders in november and december Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.026 on 4274 bets (broad RED)