Hypotheses · age-wfa · H156-three-year-olds-against-elders-in-november-and-december
H156: three year olds against elders in november and december
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.026 on 4274 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H156: three year olds against elders in november and december” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Three-year-olds meeting older horses in handicaps over a mile or more in November and December: nearly four, still receiving an allowance, and often still improving.
The rule
race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 3 AND month IN (11, 12) AND distance_yards >= 1760 AND race_id IN (SELECT race_id FROM lab.runs GROUP BY race_id HAVING MIN(age) = 3 AND MAX(age) >= 4)
Reads: race_type, is_handicap, age, month, distance_yards, race_id, select, from, lab
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 3 AND month IN (11, 12) AND distance_yards >= 1760 AND race_id IN (SELECT race_id FROM lab.runs GROUP BY race_id HAVING MIN(age) = 3 AND MAX(age) >= 4)
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 4,274
- A/E
- 1.03
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -20.9%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +6.7%
- 668 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 10.9%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H156-three-year-olds-against-elders-in-november-and-december Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.026 on 4274 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H156-three-year-olds-against-elders-in-november-and-december (broad): info
· importer
New idea H156-three-year-olds-against-elders-in-november-and-december: H156: three year olds against elders in november and december (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.