Threads · age-winter · H157-lightly-raced-three-year-old-returns-in-a-spring-handicap
H157: lightly raced three year old returns in a spring handicap
- Hypotheses
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- Depth
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- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
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- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [won last time] AMBER A/E 1.073 on 366 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H157: lightly raced three year old returns in a spring handicap KILLED amber
because Flat handicap, April-May: a three-year-old with four or fewer runs on its first run for 150+ days. The same reasoning as the four-year-old result: a winter's growth, a mark earned as a baby.
race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (4, 5) AND age = 3 AND prior_runs <= 4 AND days_since_last_run >= 150
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.03 on 2,275 bets, by period 1.17 · 0.91 · 1.12. info
Betfair SP return -1.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.17. Zone: all. On H157: lightly raced three year old returns in a spring handicap
Where it started
Flat handicap, April-May: a three-year-old with four or fewer runs on its first run for 150+ days. The same reasoning as the four-year-old result: a winter's growth, a mark earned as a baby.