H157: lightly raced three year old returns in a spring handicap

Mechanism and rationale

Flat handicap, April-May: a three-year-old with four or fewer runs on its first run for 150+ days. The same reasoning as the four-year-old result: a winter's growth, a mark earned as a baby.

The rule

race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (4, 5) AND age = 3 AND prior_runs <= 4 AND days_since_last_run >= 150

Reads: race_type, is_handicap, month, age, prior_runs, days_since_last_run

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (4, 5) AND age = 3 AND prior_runs <= 4 AND days_since_last_run >= 150

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "handicap debut",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (4, 5) AND age = 3 AND prior_runs <= 4 AND days_since_last_run >= 150) AND (prior_handicap_runs = 0)"
  },
  {
    "name": "won last time",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (4, 5) AND age = 3 AND prior_runs <= 4 AND days_since_last_run >= 150) AND (last_position = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "up 15%+ in trip",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (4, 5) AND age = 3 AND prior_runs <= 4 AND days_since_last_run >= 150) AND (distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info up 15%+ in trip · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

836

A/E

0.97

winners vs the prices

SP return

-26.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+44.9%

129 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 10.3%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H157-lightly-raced-three-year-old-returns-in-a-spring-handicap Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [won last time] AMBER A/E 1.073 on 366 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H157-lightly-raced-three-year-old-returns-in-a-spring-handicap (up 15%+ in trip): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H157-lightly-raced-three-year-old-returns-in-a-spring-handicap (won last time): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H157-lightly-raced-three-year-old-returns-in-a-spring-handicap (handicap debut): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H157-lightly-raced-three-year-old-returns-in-a-spring-handicap (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H157-lightly-raced-three-year-old-returns-in-a-spring-handicap: H157: lightly raced three year old returns in a spring handicap (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.