Threads · age-two · H159-exposed-two-year-old-in-a-non-handicap
H159: exposed two year old in a non handicap
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.015 on 2523 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H159: exposed two year old in a non handicap KILLED red
because NEGATIVE: a two-year-old with four or more runs still in an ordinary non-handicap. It has had its chances; later-maturing newcomers and once-raced types pass it, while its visible placed form keeps the price short.
age = 2 AND race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 0 AND pattern IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 4
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.01 on 2,523 bets, by period 0.94 · 1.04 · 1.18. info
Betfair SP return +29.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.94 to 1.18. Zone: all. On H159: exposed two year old in a non handicap
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-221,1660.942023 to a year ago9571.04Last year400Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H159: exposed two year old in a non handicap Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.015 on 2523 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
NEGATIVE: a two-year-old with four or more runs still in an ordinary non-handicap. It has had its chances; later-maturing newcomers and once-raced types pass it, while its visible placed form keeps the price short.