Hypotheses · age-two · H159-exposed-two-year-old-in-a-non-handicap
H159: exposed two year old in a non handicap
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.015 on 2523 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H159: exposed two year old in a non handicap” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
NEGATIVE: a two-year-old with four or more runs still in an ordinary non-handicap. It has had its chances; later-maturing newcomers and once-raced types pass it, while its visible placed form keeps the price short.
The rule
age = 2 AND race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 0 AND pattern IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 4
Reads: age, race_type, is_handicap, pattern, prior_runs
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
age = 2 AND race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 0 AND pattern IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 4
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 2,523
- A/E
- 1.01
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -26.1%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +29.2%
- 391 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 16.8%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H159-exposed-two-year-old-in-a-non-handicap Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.015 on 2523 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H159-exposed-two-year-old-in-a-non-handicap (broad): info
· importer
New idea H159-exposed-two-year-old-in-a-non-handicap: H159: exposed two year old in a non handicap (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.