Threads · age-two · H162-two-year-old-up-to-a-mile-in-the-autumn
H162: two year old up to a mile in the autumn
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.02 on 3412 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H162: two year old up to a mile in the autumn KILLED red
because A two-year-old trying a mile or more from August, having run over 7f or less last time: the stoutly-made ones only get their trip at the back end, and their sprint-trip form undersells them.
age = 2 AND race_type = 'Flat' AND month >= 8 AND distance_yards >= 1760 AND last_distance_yards <= 1540
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.02 on 3,412 bets, by period 0.99 · 1.04 · 1.05. info
Betfair SP return -23.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H162: two year old up to a mile in the autumn
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-221,7340.992023 to a year ago1,2251.04Last year453Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H162: two year old up to a mile in the autumn Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.02 on 3412 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
A two-year-old trying a mile or more from August, having run over 7f or less last time: the stoutly-made ones only get their trip at the back end, and their sprint-trip form undersells them.