Hypotheses · age-two · H162-two-year-old-up-to-a-mile-in-the-autumn
H162: two year old up to a mile in the autumn
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.02 on 3412 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H162: two year old up to a mile in the autumn” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
A two-year-old trying a mile or more from August, having run over 7f or less last time: the stoutly-made ones only get their trip at the back end, and their sprint-trip form undersells them.
The rule
age = 2 AND race_type = 'Flat' AND month >= 8 AND distance_yards >= 1760 AND last_distance_yards <= 1540
Reads: age, race_type, month, distance_yards, last_distance_yards
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
age = 2 AND race_type = 'Flat' AND month >= 8 AND distance_yards >= 1760 AND last_distance_yards <= 1540
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 3,412
- A/E
- 1.02
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -34.4%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -23.6%
- 451 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 11.9%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H162-two-year-old-up-to-a-mile-in-the-autumn Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.02 on 3412 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H162-two-year-old-up-to-a-mile-in-the-autumn (broad): info
· importer
New idea H162-two-year-old-up-to-a-mile-in-the-autumn: H162: two year old up to a mile in the autumn (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.