Threads · age-old-flat · H163-old-handicappers-at-the-start-of-the-turf
H163: old handicappers at the start of the turf
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.009 on 4732 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H163: old handicappers at the start of the turf KILLED red
because Six-year-olds and older in turf handicaps in March and April: hardy, they act on spring ground and know their job, while the younger ones the market prefers need a run.
race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND surface = 'Turf' AND month IN (3, 4) AND age >= 6
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.01 on 4,732 bets, by period 0.96 · 1.02 · 1.06. info
Betfair SP return -5.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.06. Zone: all. On H163: old handicappers at the start of the turf
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-221,5790.962023 to a year ago2,2991.02Last year854Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H163: old handicappers at the start of the turf Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.009 on 4732 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Six-year-olds and older in turf handicaps in March and April: hardy, they act on spring ground and know their job, while the younger ones the market prefers need a run.