Hypotheses · age-old-flat · H163-old-handicappers-at-the-start-of-the-turf
H163: old handicappers at the start of the turf
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.009 on 4732 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H163: old handicappers at the start of the turf” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Six-year-olds and older in turf handicaps in March and April: hardy, they act on spring ground and know their job, while the younger ones the market prefers need a run.
The rule
race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND surface = 'Turf' AND month IN (3, 4) AND age >= 6
Reads: race_type, is_handicap, surface, month, age
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND surface = 'Turf' AND month IN (3, 4) AND age >= 6
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 4,732
- A/E
- 1.01
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -27.8%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -5.6%
- 854 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 8.2%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H163-old-handicappers-at-the-start-of-the-turf Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.009 on 4732 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H163-old-handicappers-at-the-start-of-the-turf (broad): info
· importer
New idea H163-old-handicappers-at-the-start-of-the-turf: H163: old handicappers at the start of the turf (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.