Threads · age-old-flat · H165-all-weather-veterans
H165: all weather veterans
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.008 on 10235 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H165: all weather veterans KILLED red
because Eight-year-olds and older in all-weather handicaps: the surface is kind to old legs and these are sound professionals; age alone lengthens the price.
race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND surface = 'AW' AND age >= 8
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.01 on 10,235 bets, by period 0.98 · 1.02 · 1.04. info
Betfair SP return -3.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H165: all weather veterans
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-223,7490.982023 to a year ago4,5941.02Last year1,8921.04Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H165: all weather veterans Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.008 on 10235 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Eight-year-olds and older in all-weather handicaps: the surface is kind to old legs and these are sound professionals; age alone lengthens the price.