Hypotheses · age-old-flat · H165-all-weather-veterans
H165: all weather veterans
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.008 on 10235 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H165: all weather veterans” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Eight-year-olds and older in all-weather handicaps: the surface is kind to old legs and these are sound professionals; age alone lengthens the price.
The rule
race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND surface = 'AW' AND age >= 8
Reads: race_type, is_handicap, surface, age
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND surface = 'AW' AND age >= 8
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 10,235
- A/E
- 1.01
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -27.5%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -3.5%
- 1,880 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 7.2%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H165-all-weather-veterans Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.008 on 10235 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H165-all-weather-veterans (broad): info
· importer
New idea H165-all-weather-veterans: H165: all weather veterans (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.