Threads · age-hurdle · H167-juvenile-hurdler-into-open-handicaps-in-the-autumn

H167: juvenile hurdler into open handicaps in the autumn

Hypotheses: 1 (1 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Promising
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier N: a negative; best [has won over hurdles] NEGATIVE A/E 0.859 on 1167 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H167: juvenile hurdler into open handicaps in the autumn PROMISING negative
because NEGATIVE: a four-year-old with three or more hurdle runs in a handicap hurdle from September to December. Out of juvenile company, on a mark earned against its own age group, against hardened older horses.
```
race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 4 AND month >= 9 AND hurdle_runs >= 3
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.90 on 2,905 bets, by period 0.86 · 0.91 · 0.95. info
Betfair SP return +7.0%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H167: juvenile hurdler into open handicaps in the autumn
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221,2090.86
2023 to a year ago1,1160.91
Last year580
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
first three in the betting: A/E 0.88 on 762 bets, by period 0.82 · 0.99 · 0.81. info
Betfair SP return -37.1%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H167: juvenile hurdler into open handicaps in the autumn
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222980.82
2023 to a year ago2830.99
Last year181
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
has won over hurdles: A/E 0.86 on 1,167 bets, by period 0.94 · 0.78 · 0.83. info
Betfair SP return -0.1%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H167: juvenile hurdler into open handicaps in the autumn
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-224770.94
2023 to a year ago4400.78
Last year250
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
in Britain: A/E 0.89 on 1,749 bets, by period 0.81 · 0.86 · 1.08. info
Betfair SP return +36.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.81 to 1.08. Zone: all. On H167: juvenile hurdler into open handicaps in the autumn
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-227150.81
2023 to a year ago6610.86
Last year373
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H167: juvenile hurdler into open handicaps in the autumn Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [has won over hurdles] NEGATIVE A/E 0.859 on 1167 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

Where it started

NEGATIVE: a four-year-old with three or more hurdle runs in a handicap hurdle from September to December. Out of juvenile company, on a mark earned against its own age group, against hardened older horses.

H167: juvenile hurdler into open handicaps in the autumn

Hypotheses

1 (1 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Promising

Open questions

Last activity

15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier N: a negative; best [has won over hurdles] NEGATIVE A/E 0.859 on 1167 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H167: juvenile hurdler into open handicaps in the autumn PROMISING negative
because NEGATIVE: a four-year-old with three or more hurdle runs in a handicap hurdle from September to December. Out of juvenile company, on a mark earned against its own age group, against hardened older horses.
```
race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 4 AND month >= 9 AND hurdle_runs >= 3
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.90 on 2,905 bets, by period 0.86 · 0.91 · 0.95. info
Betfair SP return +7.0%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H167: juvenile hurdler into open handicaps in the autumn
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221,2090.86
2023 to a year ago1,1160.91
Last year580
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
first three in the betting: A/E 0.88 on 762 bets, by period 0.82 · 0.99 · 0.81. info
Betfair SP return -37.1%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H167: juvenile hurdler into open handicaps in the autumn
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222980.82
2023 to a year ago2830.99
Last year181
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
has won over hurdles: A/E 0.86 on 1,167 bets, by period 0.94 · 0.78 · 0.83. info
Betfair SP return -0.1%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H167: juvenile hurdler into open handicaps in the autumn
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-224770.94
2023 to a year ago4400.78
Last year250
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
in Britain: A/E 0.89 on 1,749 bets, by period 0.81 · 0.86 · 1.08. info
Betfair SP return +36.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.81 to 1.08. Zone: all. On H167: juvenile hurdler into open handicaps in the autumn
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-227150.81
2023 to a year ago6610.86
Last year373
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H167: juvenile hurdler into open handicaps in the autumn Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [has won over hurdles] NEGATIVE A/E 0.859 on 1167 bets (broad NEGATIVE)