H167: juvenile hurdler into open handicaps in the autumn

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: a four-year-old with three or more hurdle runs in a handicap hurdle from September to December. Out of juvenile company, on a mark earned against its own age group, against hardened older horses.

The rule

race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 4 AND month >= 9 AND hurdle_runs >= 3

Reads: race_type, is_handicap, age, month, hurdle_runs

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 4 AND month >= 9 AND hurdle_runs >= 3

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "first three in the betting",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 4 AND month >= 9 AND hurdle_runs >= 3) AND (sp_rank <= 3)"
  },
  {
    "name": "has won over hurdles",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 4 AND month >= 9 AND hurdle_runs >= 3) AND (hurdle_wins >= 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "in Britain",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age = 4 AND month >= 9 AND hurdle_runs >= 3) AND (region = 'GB')"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info in Britain · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,749

A/E

0.89

winners vs the prices

SP return

-29.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+36.1%

373 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 8.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H167-juvenile-hurdler-into-open-handicaps-in-the-autumn Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [has won over hurdles] NEGATIVE A/E 0.859 on 1167 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H167-juvenile-hurdler-into-open-handicaps-in-the-autumn (in Britain): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H167-juvenile-hurdler-into-open-handicaps-in-the-autumn (has won over hurdles): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H167-juvenile-hurdler-into-open-handicaps-in-the-autumn (first three in the betting): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H167-juvenile-hurdler-into-open-handicaps-in-the-autumn (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H167-juvenile-hurdler-into-open-handicaps-in-the-autumn: H167: juvenile hurdler into open handicaps in the autumn (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.