H171: young horse in a long novice hurdle

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H171: young horse in a long novice hurdle KILLED red

   because NEGATIVE: aged five or less in a novice or maiden hurdle over 2m7f or more. Stamina comes with maturity; a young horse is asked a three-mile question before its body can answer it.

   race_type = 'Hurdle' AND age <= 5 AND distance_yards >= 5060 AND (is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1)

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.87 on 1,534 bets, by period 0.78 · 0.92 · 1.00. info

   Betfair SP return +87.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.78 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H171: young horse in a long novice hurdle

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-226840.78

   2023 to a year ago6040.92

   Last year246

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   soft or heavy: A/E 0.96 on 382 bets, by period 0.89 · 0.98 · 1.18. info

   Betfair SP return +393.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.18. Zone: all. On H171: young horse in a long novice hurdle

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221990.89

   2023 to a year ago1280.98

   Last year55

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   favourite or second favourite: A/E 0.95 on 382 bets, by period 0.97 · 0.86 · 1.13. info

   Betfair SP return +10.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.86 to 1.13. Zone: all. On H171: young horse in a long novice hurdle

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221570.97

   2023 to a year ago1550.86

   Last year70

5. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H171: young horse in a long novice hurdle Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [soft or heavy] RED A/E 0.961 on 382 bets (broad RED)