H171: young horse in a long novice hurdle

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: aged five or less in a novice or maiden hurdle over 2m7f or more. Stamina comes with maturity; a young horse is asked a three-mile question before its body can answer it.

The rule

race_type = 'Hurdle' AND age <= 5 AND distance_yards >= 5060 AND (is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1)

Reads: race_type, age, distance_yards, is_novice, is_maiden

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Hurdle' AND age <= 5 AND distance_yards >= 5060 AND (is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1)

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "soft or heavy",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND age <= 5 AND distance_yards >= 5060 AND (is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1)) AND (going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "favourite or second favourite",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND age <= 5 AND distance_yards >= 5060 AND (is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1)) AND (sp_rank <= 2)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info favourite or second favourite · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

382

A/E

0.95

winners vs the prices

SP return

-11.8%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+10.0%

70 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 28.0%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H171-young-horse-in-a-long-novice-hurdle Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [soft or heavy] RED A/E 0.961 on 382 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H171-young-horse-in-a-long-novice-hurdle (favourite or second favourite): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H171-young-horse-in-a-long-novice-hurdle (soft or heavy): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H171-young-horse-in-a-long-novice-hurdle (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H171-young-horse-in-a-long-novice-hurdle: H171: young horse in a long novice hurdle (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.