Threads · age-stamina · H175-young-horse-in-a-marathon-chase
H175: young horse in a marathon chase
- Hypotheses
- 20 (4 alive)
- Depth
- 4
- Best rung
- Live
- Open questions
- 16
- Last activity
- 16 Oct, 14:41
Where it stands: Not convincingly. Young chasers with 6 or fewer chase runs at 3m to 3m3f scored 0.93 on 743 bets (CI 0.76 to 1.13, p 0.78) against a same-race control of 1.06, so the sign leans negative but is not distinguishable from par, and 0 wins from 107 bets at 16/1+ carry much of it.
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H175: young horse in a marathon chase PROMISING green
because NEGATIVE: aged seven or less in a chase over 3m4f or more. Marathon trips need a mature, hardened horse; the young improver's price assumes it will stay.
race_type = 'Chase' AND age <= 7 AND distance_yards >= 6160
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.16 on 618 bets, by period 1.17 · 1.21 · 1.05. info
Where it started
NEGATIVE: aged seven or less in a chase over 3m4f or more. Marathon trips need a mature, hardened horse; the young improver's price assumes it will stay.