Threads · age-track · H177-old-chasers-in-the-mud-at-a-stamina-track

H177: old chasers in the mud at a stamina track

Hypotheses: 1 (1 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Promising
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [heavy] AMBER A/E 1.232 on 349 bets (broad AMBER)

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H177: old chasers in the mud at a stamina track PROMISING amber
because Aged ten or more in a chase of three miles or more on soft or heavy at a stiff or stamina-testing track: the race becomes jumping and staying, which is all an old horse has left and all it needs.
```
race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND (track_stamina_test = 1 OR track_stiff_finish = 1)
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.05 on 895 bets, by period 0.93 · 0.97 · 1.90. info
Betfair SP return +100.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.90. Zone: all. On H177: old chasers in the mud at a stamina track
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-223810.93
2023 to a year ago4210.97
Last year93
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
handicap: A/E 1.04 on 685 bets, by period 0.94 · 0.97 · 1.86. info
Betfair SP return +143.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.94 to 1.86. Zone: all. On H177: old chasers in the mud at a stamina track
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-223150.94
2023 to a year ago3000.97
Last year70
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
heavy: A/E 1.23 on 349 bets, by period 0.98 · 1.21 · 2.19. info
Betfair SP return +156.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 2.19. Zone: all. On H177: old chasers in the mud at a stamina track
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221560.98
2023 to a year ago1451.21
Last year482.19
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.02 on 469 bets, by period 0.88 · 0.96 · 1.88. info
Betfair SP return +81.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.88 to 1.88. Zone: all. On H177: old chasers in the mud at a stamina track
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222100.88
2023 to a year ago2110.96
Last year48
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H177: old chasers in the mud at a stamina track Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [heavy] AMBER A/E 1.232 on 349 bets (broad AMBER)

Where it started

Aged ten or more in a chase of three miles or more on soft or heavy at a stiff or stamina-testing track: the race becomes jumping and staying, which is all an old horse has left and all it needs.

H177: old chasers in the mud at a stamina track

Hypotheses

1 (1 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Promising

Open questions

Last activity

15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [heavy] AMBER A/E 1.232 on 349 bets (broad AMBER)

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H177: old chasers in the mud at a stamina track PROMISING amber
because Aged ten or more in a chase of three miles or more on soft or heavy at a stiff or stamina-testing track: the race becomes jumping and staying, which is all an old horse has left and all it needs.
```
race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND (track_stamina_test = 1 OR track_stiff_finish = 1)
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.05 on 895 bets, by period 0.93 · 0.97 · 1.90. info
Betfair SP return +100.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.90. Zone: all. On H177: old chasers in the mud at a stamina track
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-223810.93
2023 to a year ago4210.97
Last year93
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
handicap: A/E 1.04 on 685 bets, by period 0.94 · 0.97 · 1.86. info
Betfair SP return +143.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.94 to 1.86. Zone: all. On H177: old chasers in the mud at a stamina track
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-223150.94
2023 to a year ago3000.97
Last year70
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
heavy: A/E 1.23 on 349 bets, by period 0.98 · 1.21 · 2.19. info
Betfair SP return +156.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 2.19. Zone: all. On H177: old chasers in the mud at a stamina track
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221560.98
2023 to a year ago1451.21
Last year482.19
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.02 on 469 bets, by period 0.88 · 0.96 · 1.88. info
Betfair SP return +81.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.88 to 1.88. Zone: all. On H177: old chasers in the mud at a stamina track
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222100.88
2023 to a year ago2110.96
Last year48
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H177: old chasers in the mud at a stamina track Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [heavy] AMBER A/E 1.232 on 349 bets (broad AMBER)

Where it started

Aged ten or more in a chase of three miles or more on soft or heavy at a stiff or stamina-testing track: the race becomes jumping and staying, which is all an old horse has left and all it needs.