H177: old chasers in the mud at a stamina track

Mechanism and rationale

Aged ten or more in a chase of three miles or more on soft or heavy at a stiff or stamina-testing track: the race becomes jumping and staying, which is all an old horse has left and all it needs.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND (track_stamina_test = 1 OR track_stiff_finish = 1)

Reads: race_type, age, distance_yards, going_group, track_stamina_test, track_stiff_finish

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND (track_stamina_test = 1 OR track_stiff_finish = 1)

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND (track_stamina_test = 1 OR track_stiff_finish = 1)) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "heavy",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND (track_stamina_test = 1 OR track_stiff_finish = 1)) AND (going_group = 'heavy')"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND (track_stamina_test = 1 OR track_stiff_finish = 1)) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

469

A/E

1.02

winners vs the prices

SP return

-21.8%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+81.7%

48 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 12.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H177-old-chasers-in-the-mud-at-a-stamina-track Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [heavy] AMBER A/E 1.232 on 349 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H177-old-chasers-in-the-mud-at-a-stamina-track (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H177-old-chasers-in-the-mud-at-a-stamina-track (heavy): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H177-old-chasers-in-the-mud-at-a-stamina-track (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H177-old-chasers-in-the-mud-at-a-stamina-track (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H177-old-chasers-in-the-mud-at-a-stamina-track: H177: old chasers in the mud at a stamina track (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.