Threads · age-bumper · H180-late-starter-in-a-bumper
H180: late starter in a bumper
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.001 on 1389 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H180: late starter in a bumper KILLED red
because NEGATIVE: a bumper newcomer aged six or more. A bumper horse that has not run by six has been hard to train.
race_type = 'Bumper' AND age >= 6 AND prior_runs = 0
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.00 on 1,389 bets, by period 1.01 · 1.13 · 0.62. info
Betfair SP return +21.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.62 to 1.13. Zone: all. On H180: late starter in a bumper
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-228181.012023 to a year ago4081.13Last year1630.62Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H180: late starter in a bumper Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.001 on 1389 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
NEGATIVE: a bumper newcomer aged six or more. A bumper horse that has not run by six has been hard to train.